期刊论文

Empirical Analysis on Agricultural Economic Growth of China’s Agricultural Product Import Trade Based on Co-Integration Adaptive Expectation Model

中文

特区经济

1004-0714

2020

8

99-104

国家社会科学基金项目“我国农产品贸易逆差研究”（15BJY112）；

本校为其他机构

本文选取了1995—2018年我国农产品进口贸易总额和农业经济增长额作为样本数据,结合协整理论和自适应预期模型研究我国农产品进口贸易对农业经济的影响。从长远来看,我国农产品进口总额增长1%,可以促进我国农业经济增长0.4%;从短期来看,农产品进口总额每增长1%,我国农业经济增长0.1267%,并且还会根据上年的误差产生35%的修正。同时通过工具变量,得出农产品进口贸易预期对农业经济增长具有正向影响的结论,未来农产品进口总额预期值每增长1%,农业经济将增长0.5%左右。合理有效地促进农产品进口贸易,并且及时发布真实良好的经济发展数据,有利形成良好的进口预期,对我国农业经济的健康增长具有重要意...

This paper selects 1995 to 2018 total agricultural imports amount of trade in agricultural and economic growth as the sample data,combined with the impact study co-integration theory and adaptive expectations model agricultural imports Trade on the agricultural economy. In the long run,total imports of agricultural products rose 1%,can promote China’s agricultural economic growth of 0.4%;the short term,total imports of agricultural products every 1% increase,China ’s agricultural economic growth 0.1267%,and it will generate a 35% correction b...