期刊论文

中文

南京大学学报(自然科学版)

0469-5097

2003

39

6

814-821

10.3321/j.issn:0469-5097.2003.06.010

国家自然科学基金

本校为其他机构

研究了生态脆弱区(江西省上饶县)农业产业结构调整下农户土地利用动态变化基本特征.通过建立研究区土地利用变化的马尔柯夫过程模拟模型,进行了农户土地利用变化过程和农业土地用途相互转换分析,并对土地利用变化演变趋势做出了预测.结果表明:上饶县在未来的10年内,耕地资源仍将继续减少,其中水田减少的速度有所减缓,但旱地减少的速度有加快的趋势;同时,在农产品市场运行机制引导下的农业产业结构调整过程中,农户土地利用方式发生改变,各种地类的相互转换,如茶园变果园、桑园变旱地等,势必引起土地覆被的变化,从而可能导致生态脆弱环境下的水土流失;此外,由于我国正处于宏观政策改革时期,使得农...

We have studied some features of land use change process of farm households under agricultural industrial structure adjustment in a fragile ecological area (Shangrao County, Jiangxi Province). The change process of farm households' land use and the transformation of agricultural land use types are analyzed quantitatively, and the evolution trend of farm households' land use change are predicted with Markov model. The results show that in the coming 10 years the cultivated land resources will continue to decrease, and that the decreasing rate of paddy field will be slowed down to some extent, b...